New Delhi: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China have agreed to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan despite the strained relations between Islamabad and Kabul over the latter extending support to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
The agreement appears to have been brokered by China with the assurance that it would invest in projects in Afghanistan, provided Kabul stops supporting the Pakistani Taliban, who pose a major problem for Islamabad.
However, there are several obstacles on the ground level which are likely to come in the way of implementing this agreement, according to an article in The Diplomat by Sudha Ramachandran.
The article is based on an interview with Shaheer Baig, an official in the Office of the National Security Council of the Afghan government under former President Ashraf Ghani, who is of the view that the CPEC project is not likely to succeed in due to violent attacks in the volatile region, corruption and Pakistan’s “grand strategy of creating chaos in Afghanistan” in order to be able to control the country.
In Pakistan’s perception, Afghanistan is useful to acquire strategic depth against India. This has shaped its strategy and policies towards Afghanistan for decades and continues to date. Pakistan wants to control Afghanistan and has consistently pushed for control over its military, foreign policy, and trade, the article points out.
Past experience shows that Chinese companies have secured numerous contracts in Afghanistan, but they have not completed any projects successfully. For instance, the Mes Aynak copper mine project was awarded to the Metallurgical Corp of China (MCC). However, since Afghanistan does not have the electricity and water needed to run such a massive operation, the project remains only on paper. More recently, an oil deal relating to a project in Sar-e-Pul in northern Afghanistan has run into trouble. According to reports, Chinese engineers were taken into custody by the Taliban, the article points out.
Foreign investment faces several challenges in Afghanistan. One is that tribal communities that inhabit the region, particularly on both sides of the Durand Line, can be easily incited to launch violent attacks to derail projects. Corruption is also a crucial issue, while “Pakistan’s grand strategy in Afghanistan is to create chaos, no big projects, even those spearheaded by the Chinese, will work in Afghanistan”, the article states.
The article cites Baig as saying that Afghanistan wants to be part of the Belt and Road Initiative, but not through CPEC. It is keen to be part of BRI, preferably through a direct road from Wakhan to China, but that seems not to be on China’s agenda, both because of feasibility and also because, like India and other countries, China always views Afghanistan primarily through the lens of security challenges, not as a partner in establishing a direct corridor for trade.
The article further states that the Taliban are desperate for money from any source. But they have very little experience in running a government. They see China’s economic power but don’t understand it, assuming money is easy to come by, when in reality, China doesn’t give out free funds.
“During our time in office, we saw very little significant funding from China — mostly small amounts under six digits, and only rarely some support in six or more digits. Promised investments were never fully delivered as planned,” the article quoted Baig as saying.
(IANS)
