Patna: The double-engine government under Nitish Kumar is set to return to power with a thumping mandate in the hotly contested Bihar Assembly elections, while Mahagathbandhan is seen getting relegated to the distant second spot, according to the IANS-Matrize Exit polls.
As per the Exit poll projections, the BJP-led NDA is set to garner 48 per cent vote share, effectively translating into almost two-thirds majority in the 243-member Assembly, while the Mahagathbandhan is seen getting limited to 37 per cent vote share, which barely translates into 70-90 seats for the RJD-Congress-led alliance.
Another major highlight of the Exit polls is the resurgence of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), which came under much scrutiny in the run-up to elections, owing to the Chief Minister’s poor health.
The Exit polls show a strong consolidation of JD(U) voters in the elections, and the party may also emerge as the single largest outfit, leaving behind its ally BJP and rival RJD.
BJP is seen steadying its performance, much like the previous election in 2020 and is expected to fetch 65-73 seats by garnering about 19 per cent vote share.
RJD is projected to get 21 vote share and bag 53-58 seats, while its biggest ally, Congress, is expected to settle with just 7 per cent vote share, translating into 10-12 seats.
The Exit poll predictions, if they turn out to be true on November 14, mean a resounding mandate for the Nitish Kumar government and disastrous performance for the Mahagathbandhan despite the latter mounting a resonating campaign of ‘vote chori’, trying to galvanise people over alleged electoral fraud in the elections.
The smaller constituents of NDA, namely Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustan Awam Morcha (HMA), Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha are expected to bag 2, 5 and 2 per cent vote share respectively. Together, they are expected to add 12-16 seats in the NDA kitty, thereby taking its total tally to 147-167 seats.
For the Mahagathbandhan, CPI(ML), CPI, CPI (M) and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) are expected to cobble together 9 per cent vote share, resulting in about 10-18 seats. With the numbers of all constituents together, the grand alliance is seen settling at the 70-90 seats mark.
Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj is seen making an impressive mark on its debut with 5 per cent vote share, while Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM is seen garnering 1 per cent vote share.
While Jan Suraaj is projected to win 0-2 seats, the AIMIM may see its candidates winning in 2-3 constituencies.
Other parties taken together are likely to get 9 per cent vote share and command victory in about 0-5 seats.
The projections of vote percentage and seat share by IANS-Matrize Exit Polls come with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 per cent. More than 66,000 people were surveyed for arriving at the conclusion, which included views of over 31,000 males, over 19000 females and over 15,000 young voters, taken till November 11 – the second phase of polling, which registered a record voter turnout.
(IANS)
