New Delhi: Gold’s rally in 2025, surging about 60 per cent year-to-date, may continue in the near‑term, giving it a positive bias in 2026 amid support from safe‑haven flows and central bank buying, a report said on Thursday.
The report from Axis Mutual Fund, however, said that investors should brace for bouts of correction and volatility in 2026.
Higher real yields, a stronger US dollar, higher global growth, reduced inflationary pressures, and hawkish US policy stance may erode demand, it cautioned.
Regarding silver’s outlook in 2026, analysts warned that overvaluation could lead to ETF outflows, or a downturn in copper could also weigh on prices.
“Overall, our outlook for silver is constructive with multiple tailwinds sustaining its rally even as valuations stretch,” the report said
Gold‑backed exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) have witnessed strong inflows, with assets under management reaching a record of about $470 billion by the end of Q3CY25, while demand for bars and coins exceeded 300 tonnes for three consecutive quarters.
“In the near term, we have a positive bias on gold, supported by safe haven flows given the backdrop of global uncertainty,” the report said.
The rally in 2025 was supported by a lower opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding gold, and safe-haven appeal is sustained amid expectations of US rate cuts.
“We anticipate 1-2 more rate cuts in this cycle, as macroeconomic conditions stay uneven and weakness persists in the labour market,” the report said.
Concerns over Federal Reserve independence, a weaker US dollar and persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical risks are other factors supporting safe-haven demand. Central banks globally have increased gold reserves, and their gold’s share has overtaken that of US Treasuries for the first time in nearly three decades.
Central Banks’ preference for gold over silver may limit its official demand support. Possible substitution in industrial uses also poses a risk.
With silver currently trading at $58 per troy ounce, valuations look stretched, the report noted. Silver supply remains inelastic amid rising prices as the majority of mined silver is produced as a by-product of lead, zinc and copper mining.
(IANS)
