Mumbai: The BMC elections, scheduled for January 15, will be a multi-cornered battle as the contest is no longer between two major alliances but has fractured into five power centres.
The BJP and Shiv Sena MahaYuti alliance, comprising their allies, will be a dominant alliance with a resolve to unfurl saffron flag atop BMC with the Mahayuti mayor.
BJP is contesting 137 seats, leaving 90 seats to Shiv Sena. Further, the BJP proposes to flag off its development agenda while appealing to the voters to vote for a triple-engine government in BMC to further push the city’s growth.
On the other hand, Shiv Sena plans to eat into the traditional votes of Marathi Manoos with a resolve to prove that they are the “real” Shiv Sena, which is following the ideology of party founder Balasaheb Thackeray.
Interestingly, BJP’s ally, the Republican Party of India (A), led by Ramdas Athawale, has entered into the fray alleging it was denied respectable seats during the seat-sharing arrangement.
Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS have allied to consolidate the “Marathi Manoos” vote, focusing on emotional heritage and local pride. This is a reunion of Uddhav and Raj Thackeray after almost 20 years. Both cousins will cash in on Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy and plan to checkmate the BJP, exposing its plan to isolate Mumbai from Maharashtra.
Breaking away from the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), Congress is contesting independently in a strategic alliance with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) to target Dalit, Muslim, and North Indian votes.
Despite being in the state-level Mahayuti, Ajit Pawar’s NCP is going solo after it did not find a place in the BJP-led coalition.
AAP and the Samajwadi Party will be the new disrupters targeting a specific pocket. AAP on “Delhi-style” civic transparency and SP in minority-heavy wards like Govandi and Mankhurd.
Traditionally, the undivided Shiv Sena held a monopoly over the Marathi vote. Now, that vote is split three ways, comprising Eknath Shinde (State Power), Uddhav (Legacy), and Raj Thackeray (Linguistic Identity).
Against this backdrop, the BJP hopes to get mileage with their core voter base comprising North Indians, Gujaratis, and the cosmopolitan elite, which remains largely consolidated, while the Marathi vote is cannibalised by the three Sena/MNS factions.
Parties like the VBA and AAP may not win many seats, but by pulling 2,000–3,000 votes in a ward, they can effectively “spoil” the chances of the frontrunners, leading to unexpected “dark horse” winners.
By contesting independently, Congress risks losing its relevance in Mumbai if it fails to cross its 2017 mark of 31 seats. However, they believe that staying with the Sena (UBT)-MNS alliance would have alienated their Muslim and North Indian supporters due to the MNS’s “sons-of-the-soil” rhetoric. This makes them a wild card in the suburbs.
However, Congress insiders claimed that by joining hands with Prakash Ambedkar’s VBA, they are attempting to rebuild a coalition of Dalits and Muslims that was once their stronghold.
For the BJP, the BMC elections are an opportunity to prove they are the dominant force in Mumbai. For both Sena factions, it is an existential battle for the “Bow and Arrow” legacy. For Mumbaikars, the multi-cornered contest means a wider variety of choices but a higher likelihood of a fractured mandate.
(IANS)
