New Delhi: The Bangladesh elections are just a month away and currently all opinion polls suggest a clear victory for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) headed by Tarique Rahman.
Both Pakistan and the Chinese who have made several investments in the country are aware that the BNP is ahead and the Jamaat-e-Islami would come second and remain in Opposition. However, both the Chinese and Pakistanis continue to engage closely with the Jamaat.
For both nations the Jamaat is an important player even if it’s not in power. Both nations view the Jamaat as a counter-weight to India’s influence in Bangladesh.
While Pakistani officials at multiple levels have stayed in touch and engaged with the Jamaat, Indian agencies are tracking the developments closely following a meeting between Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh, Yao Wen and Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman.
Bangladesh watchers say that the Chinese are well-aware that the Jamaat will remain relevant and strong even if it does not win the elections. It has manpower and influence over several institutions in the country.
The Jamaat is capable of creating unrest in the country with the sole intention of hurting India’s interests in the nation.
Moreover these meetings also come at a time when India has been engaging heavily with the BNP leadership.
External Affairs Minister, Dr. S Jaishankar attended the funeral of BNP founder, Khaleda Zia. He also handed over a condolence note from Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
An official said that this reset of ties which is being attempted has not gone down too well with both Pakistan and China. They would look to engage the Jamaat post the elections in carrying out protests and ensure that there is political volatility always in the country.
A volatile Bangladesh is a headache for India as the border areas would remain extremely stressed the official added. This would increase the workload of the security agencies who will have to always remain alert against infiltrations and terror attacks.
An Intelligence Bureau official says that the Jamaat would be used to create chaos each time there is an Indian investment or attempts are made to improve ties. Further the Jamaat enjoys a lot of street power and this comes in handy to those nations who want to ensure that there is no post-poll stability in the nation.
The Jamaat also has influence over all the student unions in the country. It has a good number of people both in the army as well as the police who are loyal. All these factors work in favour of the anti-India forces, officials also add.
As China and Pakistan have made significant investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing wants an assurance from the Jamaat that any form of violence that would take place should not affect their investments.
The agencies have been anticipating a lot of violence in the run-up to the polls and even after it. The Chinese and Pakistanis want the Jamaat to ensure that the violence does not impact their investments.
Another official said that the Jamaat has gladly agreed and even given assurances. The Jamaat would side with anyone who works against Indian interests, officials added.
By meeting with the Jamaat leadership, both nations are also trying to send a message to the BNP that if it does not tow their line, then the Jamaat will be used to create instability in the nation.
Both China and Pakistan do not want the BNP leadership to re-calibrate their policy, especially when it comes to India.
Under Muhammad Yunus ties between India and Bangladesh have fallen to an all-time low and Islamabad and Beijing would like this to continue post the elections as well, another official added.
(IANS)
