New Delhi: The debate over Bangladesh achieving a trillion dollar economy by 2034 has moved from party manifestos into national conversation and online trolling, even as some economists have claimed the target may perhaps be achievable, said a media report published Wednesday.
Under the right mix of policy, investment and institutional reform, Bangladesh could reach a much larger economy within a decade, but only if growth, revenue mobilisation and structural change accelerate sharply, argued a column in Bangladesh’s Prothom Alo.
The debate gained ground recently with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) announcing its goal of a trillion-dollar economy by 2034 if voted to power in the February 12 election.
The claim was met with trolling on social media that called the figure campaign rhetoric rather than a feasible economic plan. According to the International Monetary Fund, Bangladesh’s GDP is about 519 billion dollars in 2025, according to the article.
Real growth slowed to roughly 3.7–3.9 per cent in 2025, down from earlier years, with a modest rebound projected for the 2026 fiscal year at 4.8–5 per cent.
At the current pace, Bangladesh could surpass USD 700 billion by 2030, but moving from that level to a trillion in real terms requires a fundamentally different growth trajectory, the column stressed.
It further pointed to an important distinction: nominal GDP targets can be met by exchange rate movements or inflation, but a genuine trillion dollar economy in today’s prices requires sustained, high real growth.
To reach that scale in real terms, Bangladesh would need to sustain around 8 per cent annual real GDP growth for a decade, a historical feat that few countries have managed without deep structural transformation.
The piece warned that relying on one off accounting gains or currency effects would produce headline numbers without the social and developmental benefits that a truly larger economy should deliver.
It identified investment as the single biggest bottleneck. High interest rates, policy uncertainty, a weak banking sector and political risk have kept quality private investment subdued, said the newspaper article.
Bangladesh’s revenue to GDP ratio is about 7 per cent, one of the lowest in South Asia. The column argued that unless this ratio rises to 14–15 per cent, the state cannot finance the large public investments in infrastructure, education and health needed to underpin high growth trajectories.
Meanwhile, with roughly 20 lakh young people entering the labour market each year and about 68 per cent of the population of working age, Bangladesh has a window of demographic advantage until around 2030.
The economy must create productive jobs, where youth unemployment is already 11-12 per cent, and spending on vocational training and skills is negligible, it argued, adding that vocational spending is under 0.1 per cent of GDP, while education and health allocations are also low.
Bangladesh’s economy remains heavily dependent on ready made garments, which account for more than 80 per cent of exports, observed the column. That concentration limits value added growth and exposes the country to global demand shocks.
The article called for diversification into electronics, light engineering, pharmaceuticals and agro processing, and for upgrading services such as IT, logistics and health to raise productivity.
Meanwhile, corruption, bureaucratic inertia, and a rising stock of nonperforming bank loans were flagged as chronic impediments. These factors raise the cost of doing business, deter long term financing and sap investor confidence.
Without decisive improvements in governance and a functioning corporate bond market for long term finance, private investment will remain constrained, stressed the Prothom Alo piece.
(IANS)
