New Delhi: India’s GDP growth for FY27 is likely to touch 7.2 per cent and FY26 growth could be revised up to 7.8 per cent from 7.6 per cent in the subsequent GDP estimates from the government, a report said on Monday.
The report from HDFC Bank said the new GDP series with base year 2022 23 confirms India’s healthy growth performance in this fiscal, adding the growth estimates will rise going forward given strong high frequency indicators in Q4.
The nominal growth for FY27 is estimated at 10.5–11 per cent, and the private consumption has picked up in FY26, growing above 8 per cent with Q3 at 8.7 per cent, after moderating to 5.8 per cent in FY25, the report further said.
“GDP data shows that 40 per cent of the consumer spending basket saw a slowdown in FY25 on discretionary items including clothing, footwear, furnishings, household equipment etc. while spending on essentials like food, housing and utilities, and health continued to rise,” the report said.
The report highlighted investment growth was revised down in the new series, adding the growth saw a slow start at the beginning FY26 but has shown some improvement in recent quarters.
As consumption momentum improves and capacity utilisation rates rise, further momentum in investments going into FY27 could be expected, with higher growth performance already being seen in manufacturing, financial, real estate and professional services and hospitality sectors, the report said.
The bank flagged the debt to GDP ratio, which is now estimated at 57.5 per cent compared to 55.6 per cent in the earlier series, due to a change in nominal GDP for FY27, and called for a greater fiscal consolidation to meet the FY31 target.
Prolonged tensions in West Asia could lead to sharp increase in commodity prices like oil and LNG and influence WPI forecasts while also being a risk for other macros like currency and CAD for FY27, the report noted.
(IANS)
