New Delhi: India’s economy has remained resilient amid global shocks and is projected to clock the full year 2026-27 GDP growth rate of 6.6 per cent, with real GDP growth of closer to 7.2 per cent in the fourth quarter last fiscal (Q4 FY26), an SBI Research report said on Monday.
The GDP growth for last fiscal (FY26) is likely to be at 7.5 per cent. Despite global headwinds, the Indian economy has maintained strong growth momentum. High-frequency activity data indicates resilient economic activity, with minor decline in Q4.
“Rural consumption remains strong, driven by positive signals from farm and non-farm activity. Supported by fiscal stimulus, urban consumption shows a consistent uptick since the last festive season,” said Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India (SBI).
Growth in bank credit of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) accelerated to 16.1 per cent in FY26, up from 11.0 per cent in FY25. While the total incremental credit growth was Rs 29.5 lakh crore, H1 credit growth was only Rs 5 lakh crore, and H2 at Rs 24.5 lakh crore.
With the consumption boost by government through GST, credit continued to grow in H2FY26. The same trend is continuing now, and credit grew by 16 per cent (as of April 30 2026), the report mentioned.
“However, we expect, the credit growth will remain robust during the H1FY27 and will decline in H2 with high base effect. The full year, credit growth is expected at 13-14 per cent,” the report noted.
Domestic consumption is expected to hold GDP growth upwards, despite external crisis, especially West Asia crisis.
Moreover, the SBI report model estimated that every $10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices may widen the CAD by 35 bps, inflation by 35-40 bps and 20-25 bps in GDP.
As the oil prices is around $105/barrel (May), the average oil price will be around $100/barrel and India’s GDP is expected to be 6.6 per cent in FY27, the report mentioned.
(IANS)
