Washington: India-US relations are undergoing a period of “tactical stabilisation” but remain constrained by lingering strategic mistrust despite recent progress on trade and civil nuclear cooperation, former White House and State Department India expert Basant Sanghera has said.
Speaking to IANS after Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s first visit to India, Sanghera said the trip was important symbolically but unlikely to produce a major long-term shift in the relationship.
“I think it’s good that the secretary visited India. It was his first visit as Secretary of State. It’s important he did a Quad foreign ministers meeting, particularly given there has been no leader-level summit,” Sanghera said.
“In terms of long-term impact, I think it’ll be very minimal. We’re sort of in a period of tactical stabilisation in US-India, but there’s also a level of strategic mistrust. That sort of fundamental paradigm hasn’t changed.”
Sanghera, now Managing Principal at The Asia Group, previously served on the India Desk at the State Department and as Director for India and the Indian Ocean at the White House National Security Council.
He said the absence of a Quad leaders’ summit has slowed momentum within the grouping.
“I think it has,” he said when asked whether the Quad had been affected during the past year and a half.
“If you don’t have that action-forcing function, that impacts tangible cooperation.”
While the Quad would continue, he added that “the level of ambition will be lower absent that sort of leader-level attention.”
Asked whether a Quad summit could take place during the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term, Sanghera said there was still a possibility.
“There’s a chance,” he said, noting that Ambassador Sergio Gor “has been a strong proponent for the relationship” and has “a keen interest in making that happen.”
Despite concerns over the broader trajectory of ties, Sanghera credited both governments for securing some notable gains.
“The fact that in the last six months we’ve had an initial joint statement on a trade deal has been finalised, but that is significant,” he said.
He also highlighted India’s passage of the Shanti Act, which he said marked a breakthrough in long-running efforts to operationalise elements of the US-India civil nuclear partnership.
“In any sort of normal period of time, those two accomplishments would be seen as major milestones for the US-India relationship,” Sanghera said. “So I give the administration credit where it’s due. Those were significant.”
At the same time, he said a range of disputes and disagreements had created headwinds.
“There has also been sort of this perfect storm of irritants, whether it’s trade, whether it’s tariffs, whether it’s some of the regional issues, particularly related to Pakistan. All those have created a drag on the relationship.”
According to Sanghera, domestic political debate in India has also become a factor.
“I haven’t seen domestically in India the US-India ties this politicised since the Bush era during the civil nuclear deal around circa 2006.”
On Pakistan, Sanghera said many in India had initially expected the Trump administration to devote less attention to Islamabad because it was the first US administration in nearly 25 years not to inherit a war in Afghanistan.
“There was an expectation that this would create less policy compulsions on the US side vis-a-vis Pakistan,” he said.
However, he rejected suggestions that recent US engagement with Pakistan signalled a broader strategic realignment.
“Does this portend some sort of wider reset in the US-Pakistan relationship? I don’t think so,” Sanghera said.
“There are still a lot of structural irritants in that relationship.”
Among those concerns, he cited Pakistan’s strategic missile programme and longstanding US worries about its development of long-range missile capabilities.
India and the United States have steadily deepened cooperation over the past two decades in defence, technology, energy and the Indo-Pacific. The relationship has enjoyed broad bipartisan support in Washington and has become a central pillar of US engagement in Asia.
(IANS)
