New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a below-normal rainfall forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season due to the El Nino event, thereby providing advance guidance for preparedness and planning by the stakeholders concerned, the Parliament was informed on Wednesday.
The IMD also indicated the likely development of El Nino conditions during the Southwest Monsoon season in its seasonal forecasts, to alert stakeholders in advance.
In addition, the IMD provides regular updates on monsoon rainfall at daily intervals and El Nino conditions at monthly intervals. It also provides rainfall at district and block levels to all stakeholders and participates in meetings conducted by the PMO, the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Ministry of Agriculture regularly and provides relevant inputs. Under crop weather watch of the Ministry of Agriculture every week, the IMD provides past rainfall and forecast of rainfall for the next two weeks, Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Dr Jitendra Singh said in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha.
In its First Stage Long Range Forecast, issued on April 13, the IMD predicted the seasonal rainfall to be 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), which was subsequently revised to 90 per cent.
In general, during the El Nino event, the Indian summer monsoon is weaker than normal, and the intensity of the El Nino also decides the amount of impact on the monsoon. Since 1950, there have been 16 El Nino years, out of which 7 years had impacted Indian monsoon rainfall when rainfall was below normal. However, there is a stronger inverse relationship between El Nino and rainfall during the latter half of the monsoon season, particularly in September, the minister pointed out.
The IMD regularly issues weather and climate forecasts, seasonal outlooks, and early warnings related to rainfall, heatwaves, and other extreme weather events, which are disseminated to all Central Ministries, state governments, and other stakeholders concerned to support preparedness and appropriate response measures, the minister said.
Besides, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), based on the experimental forecast of 2026 in the seasonal to short and medium range, is working with the Agriculture and Dam Management departments to provide the impact of rainfall and developing ENSO in agriculture and water management, the minister added.
(IANS)
