Prague: China is constructing an unprecedented hydropower project in Tibet near the heavily militarised border with India, building a massive dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo, known internationally as the Brahmaputra, raising serious concerns over devastating consequences, a recent report has stated.
It noted that the project is located in the Himalayan seismic belt, one of the world’s most earthquake-prone regions, which has a long history of devastating tremors.
Writing for ‘Project Syndicate’, Brahma Chellaney, Professor Emeritus of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research, noted that the “most troubling” warning now comes not from foreign critics but from China’s own scientists.
Chellaney cited a recent paper published in a Beijing-linked, Mandarin-language journal ‘Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology’, which flagged serious geological risks at the construction site.
“The geologists conclude that the terrain has a ‘loose structure and weak cohesion’ and warn that fault movement or an earthquake could easily trigger large-scale instability, threatening both the reservoir and surrounding infrastructure. The authors recommend reinforcing the reservoir slopes, installing retaining structures, and redesigning key elements to reduce the risk of catastrophe. When scientists working under a communist regime issue such warnings, the international community must pay attention,” he mentioned.
For northeastern India, the Brahmaputra is a vital lifeline, sustaining agriculture, fisheries, wetlands and millions of livelihoods, before flowing into Bangladesh where it is the single largest source of freshwater.
Much like China’s large-scale dam projects on the Mekong, the super-dam could alter transboundary flows and restrict the downstream flow of nutrient-rich sediment that sustains river ecosystems and farmland across riparian countries, the Project Syndicate report highlighted.
“Worse, a catastrophic structural failure — or even an emergency release of impounded water following seismic damage — could unleash devastating floods across densely populated downstream plains with little warning. What begins as an engineering failure in Tibet could become a humanitarian catastrophe extending all the way to Bangladesh, the world’s most densely populated country outside microstates and mini-states,” wrote Chellaney.
“The geological danger is only part of the story. China is increasingly transforming its control of the Tibetan Plateau — the source of most of Asia’s major rivers — into strategic leverage. It has built cascades of dams on transboundary rivers, withheld hydrological data during periods of tension, and resisted entering any water-sharing treaty with downstream states. Water has become another instrument of coercive statecraft,” it added.
The report emphasised that ironically, the latest evidence suggests that China’s scientific community may have a clearer understanding of the project’s dangers than its political leadership is willing to admit. With Chinese geologists themselves sounding the alarm, it said, Beijing must prioritise transparency and acknowledge its transboundary responsibilities before the “potential water bomb” takes shape upstream.
(IANS)
