New Delhi: India’s e-commerce sector is poised for a major expansion over the next four years, with the market projected to nearly triple from $125 billion in 2024 to $345 billion by 2030, a new report said on Wednesday.
According to a new report by research consultancy Infisum, titled Smart Growth in a Fast Market, has been prepared with support from public policy think-tank Empower India.
According to the report, India’s e-commerce market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 18.4 per cent through 2030. Rising disposable incomes, increasing internet penetration and rapid digital adoption are expected to remain the key drivers of this growth.
By 2030, online commerce could account for 10-12 per cent of India’s total retail spending and contribute around 2.5 per cent to the country’s GDP. The number of online shoppers is projected to reach 420-440 million, further strengthening India’s position as one of the world’s fastest-growing digital retail markets.
The report estimates that India’s quick-commerce market could reach $65-70 billion by 2030 and account for 45-50 per cent of incremental e-retail growth over the next five years. The expansion is also expected to trigger a significant increase in the number of dark stores, with the network projected to almost triple from 2,525 facilities in 2025 to around 7,500 by 2030.
The report also points to a shift in the priorities of quick-commerce companies. After a period dominated by aggressive customer acquisition and expansion, players are increasingly focusing on sustainable unit economics, operational efficiency and long-term investments in logistics and delivery infrastructure.
Artificial intelligence is expected to be another major force reshaping the sector. The report projects that AI and machine learning could improve retail productivity by 35-37 per cent by 2030.
Dr Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Fellow at NITI Aayog, said quick commerce should now be viewed as permanent infrastructure rather than a temporary trend.
“Quick commerce is permanent infrastructure, not a trend. Valued at USD 65–70 billion by 2030, it will drive 45–50 per cent of incremental e-retail growth,” he said.
(IANS)
