Inflation Projections Benchmarked To Global Crude Prices, Says RBI Governor
New Delhi: Reserve Bank of India Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said the inflation projections were benchmarked to international crude oil prices.
“Our inflation projections are benchmarked to international crude oil prices. We have examined various scenarios — both in upside and downside — where the crude oil prices will be and based on that analysis we have given out this projection,” he said.
India’s FY23 retail inflation is projected at 4.5 per cent, said Das while announcing the outcome of the latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday morning.
Inflation in Q1FY23 is seen at 4.9 per cent; Q2 at 5.0 per cent; Q3 at 4.0 per cent; and Q4 at 4.2 per cent, with risks broadly balanced, he said.
Later in a press conference, on being asked whether the RBI assumed no further hike in fuel prices would be made of what has not been passed on to consumers due to a recent sharp rise in global crude oil prices, Das said: “We have taken various scenarios into consideration given the current global crude oil prices. Our inflation calculation is based on international crude prices… what is the likely crude oil price and how much can it go up and how much can it go down. And on both sides we have considered and made our projections.”
Global crude oil prices have recently hit multi-year highs recently due to various reasons, including the geo-strategic tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Currently, global crude oil is trading at around $90 per barrel, as against on an average $75 per barrel in early December.
“In a global environment rendered highly volatile and uncertain by diverging monetary policy stances, geo-political tensions, elevated crude oil prices and persistent supply bottlenecks, emerging economies are vulnerable to destabilising global spillovers on an ongoing basis,” Das said during the policy outcome announcement in morning.