• Feedback
  • RSS Feed
  • Sitemap
Ommcom News
  • Home
  • Odisha
  • Nation
  • World
  • Sports
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Videos
  • Science & Tech
  • Photo Gallery
  • ଓଡ଼ିଆରେ ପଢନ୍ତୁ
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Odisha
  • Nation
  • World
  • Sports
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Videos
  • Science & Tech
  • Photo Gallery
  • ଓଡ଼ିଆରେ ପଢନ୍ତୁ
No Result
View All Result
Odisha News, Odisha Breaking News, Odisha Latest News || Ommcom News
Home Nation

2025 Southwest Monsoon Likely To Be Above Normal, Says IMD’s Long Range Forecast

OMMCOM NEWS by OMMCOM NEWS
April 15, 2025
in Nation

New Delhi: The seasonal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon (June to September) over the country as a whole this year is most likely to be above normal, at over 104 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Tuesday.

Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, based on both dynamical and statistical models, is likely to be 105 per cent of LPA, with a model error of plus/minus 5 per cent, the IMD said, as per an Earth Sciences Ministry statement. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.

As per the IMD, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region, but the atmospheric circulation features are similar to La Nina conditions. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the Neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season, it added.

The weather agency also said that present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate models forecast indicates that these are likely to continue during the Southwest Monsoon season.

It also noted that the snow cover areas of the northern hemisphere and Eurasia during the last three months (January to March 2025), which generally have an inverse relation with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, were below normal.

The IMD’s five-category probability forecasts for the seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole suggest that there is a strong probability (59 per cent) of Southwest Monsoon seasonal rainfall likely to be in the above normal category or higher (excess), that is greater than 104 per cent of the LPA.

The forecast probability for a normal monsoon is 30 per cent, of a below normal monsoon is 9 cent, and of a deficient monsoon is 2 per cent.

The IMD said it will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May, as per the practice since 2003.

Since then, the IMD issues the operational long-range forecast (LRF) for the southwest monsoon seasonal (June-September) rainfall averaged over the country as a whole in two stages – first in April and the second at the end of May.

In 2021, the IMD implemented a new strategy for issuing monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country by modifying the existing two-stage forecasting strategy. The new strategy uses both dynamical and statistical forecasting systems. The Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system is based on coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction centres, including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS).

As per the new LRF strategy, the first stage forecast issued in middle of April consists of the quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the country as a whole, and the spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for the tercile categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) of the seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the country.

The second stage forecast issued around the end of May consists of an update for the seasonal rainfall forecast issued in April, along with the probabilistic forecasts for the seasonal rainfall over the four homogenous regions of India (northwest India, central India, south Peninsula and northeast India) and monsoon core zone (MCZ). In addition, quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the country as a whole, and the spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for the tercile categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) of the June rainfall over the country are also issued during the second state forecast.

In continuation of the above forecasts, monthly rainfall forecast is issued around the end of June, July, and August, respectively, for the subsequent month. In addition, quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the country as a whole, and the spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for the tercile categories for the second half of the season rainfall is issued around end of July along with the forecast for August.

(IANS)

ShareTweetSendSharePinShareSend
Previous Post

Pakistan Plans ‘High-Level Engagement’ With Afghanistan Amid Escalating Tension Over Deported Afghans

Next Post

Odisha Mandates AI Training For Officers To Boost Governance

Related Posts

Nation

DA Dues Order: Bengal Finance Department Starts Survey To Ascertain Number Of Eligible Recipients

May 28, 2025
Nation

Delhi Police File Status Report In Court Over ‘Derogatory Posts’ By Rana Ayyub Matter

May 28, 2025
Chandrababu Naidu
Nation

Chandrababu Naidu Denies Seeking Relocation Of HAL To Andhra Pradesh

May 28, 2025
Nation

Modi Govt’s 11-Year Milestone To Be Marked With Mega ‘Sankalp Se Siddhi’ Campaign

May 28, 2025
Nation

CRF Workshop Emphasises Nuclear Energy’s Pivotal Role In India’s Secure Energy Future

May 28, 2025
Nation

Lokpal Rejects All Allegations Against SEBI Ex-Chief Madhabi Puri Buch

May 28, 2025
Next Post

Odisha Mandates AI Training For Officers To Boost Governance

Mumbai Cricket Association Approves Rohit Sharma Stand At Wankhede Stadium

Netanyahu Voices Opposition To Palestinian Statehood Amid French Recognition Push

Khimji
  • Feedback
  • RSS Feed
  • Sitemap

© 2025 - Ommcom News. All Rights Reserved.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In

Add New Playlist

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Odisha
  • Nation
  • World
  • Sports
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Videos
  • Science & Tech
  • Photo Gallery
  • ଓଡ଼ିଆରେ ପଢନ୍ତୁ

© 2025 - Ommcom News. All Rights Reserved.