New Delhi: In a resounding poll verdict that cements the National Democratic Alliance’s iron grip on Bihar, the ruling coalition stormed to a landslide, obliterating the majority mark of 122.
Led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), the NDA’s tally was bolstered by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s massive win.
Voter turnout rose to 67.14 per cent, up nearly 10 percentage points from 2020, signalling robust participation amid high-stakes campaigning.
In stark contrast, the Opposition Mahagathbandhan, comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties, was decimated.
The RJD, the alliance’s linchpin, scraped through with less than 40 seats, while Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation each faced massive defeat.
The NDA’s 47.2 per cent vote share dwarfed the Mahagathbandhan’s stagnant 37.3 per cent, a marginal rise from 37.23 per cent in 2020, highlighting how vote efficiency and consolidation propelled the incumbents to victory while fragmenting the Opposition’s base.
This analysis delves into the micro-dynamics behind the Mahagathbandhan’s electoral annihilation, drawing on data from the Election Commission of India trends, alliance arithmetic, and expert dissections.
The rout stems from a toxic mix of internal frailties, strategic blunders, and the NDA’s masterful counter-mobilisation, turning anti-incumbency whispers into a non-starter.
The Mahagathbandhan’s cohesion cracked under the weight of its weakest partner, Congress, whose dismal showing eroded the bloc’s overall momentum.
Contesting 61 seats, Congress which is leading on only four, a 79 per cent plunge from 19 in 2020, with its vote share slumping to around eight percent from 9.48 per cent. This underperformance dragged down allies like the RJD, which saw its seats halve from 75 to 31 despite holding a 23 per cent vote share, the highest among single parties.
Internal discord on seat-sharing led to friendly contests in 11 seats, sapping resources and voter clarity.
Rahul Gandhi’s reported dissatisfaction with the formula kept him off the campaign trail for nearly two months after his September Voter Adhikar Yatra, diluting the alliance’s high-decibel push.
Key Congress figures faltered, with State party Chief Rajesh Ram losing by 3,721 votes and Congress Legislature Party leader Shakeel Ahmed Khan by 18,816. This exposed a meltdown in organisational depth, making Congress a liability that failed to counter BJP’s narratives on vote theft allegations.
This fragility amplified the Mahagathbandhan’s numerical disadvantage, with Congress’s Economically Backward Classes (EBC) pivot alienating upper-caste remnants without netting new votes.
The Mahagathbandhan’s hopes of channeling anti-NDA sentiment fizzled as splinter votes diluted its base.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, debuting with a 3.5 per cent vote share, blanked on seats but eroded 2.8 points from the Mahagathbandhan’s tally by appealing to urban youth and migrants disillusioned with status quo jobs.
Similarly, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) fragmented Muslim votes in Seemanchal, where the Mahagathbandhan led in just eight to 10 of 24 seats, down from stronger 2020 showings.
The Mahagathbandhan’s vote share stagnated at 37.3 per cent despite absorbing micro-allies like Vikassheel Insaan Party for Mallah and EBC outreach, which drew zero seats from 10 contests.
This fragmentation contrasted with the NDA’s bipolar efficiency, where the Effective Number of Parties dipped to 2.65, magnifying a 10-point vote lead into 151 extra seats over the Mahagathbandhan.
In Shahabad, a 2020 Mahagathbandhan bastion with 20 of 22 seats, Jan Suraaj’s buzz helped NDA flip to 10 to 12 leads, underscoring how new alternatives lured fence-sitters without benefiting the Opposition.
As Jan Suraaj Spokesperson Pavan K Varma admitted, their failure to win trust stemmed from lacking grassroots roots, but the damage to Mahagathbandhan was collateral and severe.
Bihar’s caste calculus, once the Mahagathbandhan’s forte via RJD’s Yadav-Muslim axis, was outflanked by the NDA’s expansive social engineering.
The Mahagathbandhan’s eclectic mix of Yadavs at 14 per cent and Muslims at 17.7 per cent could not match the NDA’s rainbow coalition; BJP’s upper-caste lock at 22 per cent population, JD(U)’s EBC and MahaDalit surge with vote share up four per cent to 19 per cent, and LJP(RV)’s five to six per cent Dalit and Paswan consolidation.
Turnout skewed female by nine points above males, favouring Nitish Kumar’s 20-year goodwill from schemes like Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana with 10,000-rupee grants and Jeevika self-help groups.
Elderly women in Jehanabad cited ration and dignity as loyalty drivers, boosting NDA in more than 50 seats in Mithilanchal-Kosi.
Despite Mahagathbandhan’s core, NDA fielded four winning Muslim candidates, such as JD(U)’s Shagufta Azim in Araria, leading in 10 to 12 Seemanchal seats, a shift from zero Muslim MLAs in the outgoing House.
The Mahagathbandhan’s caste mobilisation did not add up, as smaller inclusions like Indian Inclusive Party for Tanti-Paan castes yielded no dividends.
Tejashwi Yadav’s 85 rallies targeted youth unemployment, but the Mahagathbandhan’s fear-mongering on electoral roll revisions and Nitish’s flip-flops rang hollow against NDA’s 84 Nitish-led development meets.
Rahul Gandhi’s Muslim-belt forays in Seemanchal flopped, with the region swinging NDA-ward.
Tejashwi’s 160-seat forecast crumbled to under 50 leads, eroding credibility amid NDA’s welfare narrative on housing and rations.
Analysts credit Nitish’s unshakable force in uniting non-Yadav OBCs at 35 per cent electorate, while Mahagathbandhan’s defensive pivot ignored aspirational shifts, leading to losses in Magadh with NDA taking 30 to 35 seats and Angika with 20 to 23.
The Mahagathbandhan’s 2025 drubbing, from 110 seats in 2020 to 39, signals deeper malaise, with Congress’s irrelevance and fragmentation risks hobbling future national ambitions.
For the NDA, it is validation of Nitish’s enduring formula, though Jan Suraaj’s 3.5 per cent hints at brewing urban unrest.
As Bihar eyes 2029, the Opposition must introspect: rebuild alliances sans baggage, craft bold visions, and reclaim the welfare-caste narrative.
Until then, Nitish Kumar’s third term cements Bihar’s NDA era.
(IANS)
