Bhubaneswar: Covid-19 pandemic may end in India around May 20, as per estimation of end dates by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model, published on the website of Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), Data-Driven Innovation Lab.
As published on MathWorks, SIR epidemic model is assumed as a reasonable description of the one-stage epidemic. In particular, the model assumes a constant population, uniform mixing of the people, and equally likely recovery of infected. The model is data-driven, so its forecast is as good as data are. The forecast changes with new or updated data.
The officially declared outbreak of the epidemic and the outbreak of the epidemic as it reported on the model have nothing to do with each other. The model indicates the start date when the data is sufficient to calculate the initial approximation.
Data has been sourced from Our World in Data, a scientific online publication, for the estimation. Based on which the model predicts Covid-19 end date for countries various countries.
