Bhubaneswar: The fourth wave of COVID-19 in India will start from June 22, 2022, as predicted by researchers from IIT Kanpur. The report has been published on the preprint server MedRxiv on February 24.
The research was conducted by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh of the department of mathematics and statistics, IIT Kanpur by using a statistical model for their prediction.
The third wave of COVID-19 was predicted for India using the concept of mixture of Gaussian distribution based on the data of Zimbabwe. Motivated by that study, the researchers investigated the forecasting of the fourth wave of COVID-19 outbreak in India.
Using the concept of fitting the mixture of Gaussian distribution to the data and adopting the concept of Bootstrap technique to obtain the confidence interval of the time point of peak of the curve, the team stated that the fourth wave of COVID-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date of the outbreak, which is January 30, 2020.
Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and ends on October 24, 2022. Moreover, the 99% confidence interval for the date, when the curve will reach the peak, is approximately from August 15, 2022, to August 31, 2022, the report stated.
