Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday forecasted that quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
On April 11, 2023, the IMD issued the first-stage forecasts for the 2023 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall, consisting of quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the country as a whole, and the spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for the tercile categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) of the seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the country.
On Friday, as a part of the second stage forecasts, the IMD prepared the following forecasts:
- Updated quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole and spatial distribution of the probabilistic forecasts for the seasonal rainfall over the country.
- Probabilistic forecasts for the seasonal rainfall over the four broad homogenous regions of India (northwest India, central India, south Peninsula, and northeast India)and the monsoon core zone (MCZ) consisting of most of the rain-fed agriculture areas of the country.
During June, normal to above-normal minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except for the extreme north of India and a few areas of northeast India, where below-normal minimum temperatures are likely.
III. The latest global model forecasts indicate high probabilities for the development of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and positive IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during the upcoming monsoon season.
As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on the Indian monsoon, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these ocean basins. IMD will issue the forecast for the July rainfall in the last week of June.
- The probabilistic forecast for the June rainfall over the country as a whole and spatial distribution of the probabilistic forecasts for the June rainfall over the country.
- Spatial distribution of the probabilistic forecasts for the June temperatures (maximum and minimum) for June over the country.
The updated MME forecast for the 2023 southwest monsoon season rainfall has been calculated by incorporating forecasts from different coupled global climate models based on the May initial conditions. The MME forecast specifically utilises the best few climate models that have the highest forecast skills over the Indian monsoon region, including IMD’s MMCFS model to prepare an improved and reliable forecast.
