New Delhi: Indian sugar mills are likely to produce around 320 lakh tonnes of sugar in the next season, as per the preliminary estimates for sugar season 2020-21 (October-September) issued by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) on Thursday.
Hence, sugar production is expected to rise by 48.13 lakh tonnes or 17.69 percent from 272 lakh tonnes in the current season 2019-20. However, the industry body expects that higher diversion of cane juice and B-molasses to ethanol will reduce sugar production by 15 lakh tons in the next season, as compared to the 8 lakh tons diverted this year. But even the production of 305 lakh tons of sugar in the country will increase the stockpiles as the balance stocks of the sweetener at the end of the current season are estimated at 115 lakh tons.
Based on the satellite images procured in the latter part of June 2020, the total acreage under sugarcane in the country is estimated to be around 52.28 lakh hectares in 2020-21 SS, which is about 8 percent higher than 2019-20 sugar season’s cane area of around 48.41 lakh hectares, said ISMA in a statement.
Taking this into consideration, the industry body estimates production of 320.13 lakh tons of sugar in the season 2020-21. This is assuming normal rainfall and other optimum conditions during the remaining period.
Uttar Pradesh, the leading sugarcane producing state in the country, is estimated to have sugarcane area at 22.92 lakh hectares, as against 23.21 lakh ha. in 2019-20 SS, i.e. a marginal decrease by about 1 percent. ISMA is expecting a marginal increase in yield as well as sugar recovery in 2020-21 SS, owing to good overall standing crop condition and continued replacement of cane variety by high yielding and high sugared cane varieties in more areas. Thus, sugar production in U.P. in 2020-21 SS is estimated to be around 123.06 lakh tons.
Maharashtra’s net cane area has gone up by about 43 percent in 2020-21 SS, which is mainly due to above normal SW and NE monsoon in 2019, followed by normal rainfall from January to March 2020, said ISMA.
As against the net cane area of 7.76 lakh ha. in 2019-20 SS, the area is expected to increase to 11.12 lakh ha in 2020-21. During the current 2019-20 SS around 0.5 lakh ha cane area was completely lost due to floods in July-August 2019.
Sugar production is, therefore, estimated to be around 101.34 lakh tons in 2020-21 SS, as against 61.61 lakh tons produced in 2019-20 SS, i.e. higher by about 39.73 lakh tonnes in Maharastra.
Similarly, due to timely and adequate rainfall, sugarcane area in Karnataka has also increased in 2020-21 SS. The area under sugarcane in 2020-21 SS is expected to be about 4.85 lakh ha as against 4.20 lakh ha. in 2019-20 SS, higher by about 15 percent. Sugar production in 2020-21 SS is estimated to be around 43.13 lakh tons, as against 34.20 lakh tons expected to be produced in 2019-20 SS.
Sugarcane area in Tamil Nadu for 2020-21 SS is expected to be more or less at the same level as last year. As against 2.30 lakh ha area in 2019-20 SS, cane area is about 2.2 lakh ha for 2020-21 SS. Sugar production is therefore expected to be around 7.51 lakh tons in 2020-21 SS as against 7.80 lakh tons expected to be produced in 2019-20 SS.
Sugarcane area in Gujarat for 2020-21 SS has increased by about 7% to about 2.01 lakh ha. as against 1.87 lakh ha. in 2019-20 SS, mainly due to normal rainfall in major cane growing districts during SW monsoon 2019. Sugar production is expected to be around 10.81 lakh tons in 2020-21 SS as against 9.32 lakh tons produced in 2019-20 SS.
The remaining states are expected to collectively produce about 34.28 lakh tons of sugar in the 2020-21 SS, against 32.86 lakh tons produced in 2019-20 SS.
During 2019-20 SS, till June 22, 2020, about 270.25 lakh tons of sugar has been produced and another about 1.5 lakh tons is expected to be produced in the season till September,2020 in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, taking total sugar production in 2019-20 SS to about 272 lakh tons.
With an opening balance as on 1st October, 2019 of 145 lakh tons, estimated sugar production for the current season 2019-20 of around 272 lakh tons, expected domestic sales of around 250 lakh tons and exports of around 52 lakh tons during the season, the opening stocks as on 1st October, 2020, are estimated to be around 115 lakh tons.
Since much higher production is expected in 2020-21 SS, India will continue to export about 60-70 lakh tons of the surplus sugar during 2020-21 SS, said the industry body.