New Delhi: India will witness normal weather patterns during the monsoon season this year, the Centre said On Monday.
The forecast comes a day after a private weather agency had predicted below-normal monsoon rain this year due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold.
However, Mritunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), on Monday said that there is no “one-to-one” relation between El Nino and monsoon rain in India.
With the possible development of El Nino conditions towards July, it may impact monsoon during the second half of the season, said Mohapatra. “All El Nino years are not bad monsoon years,” he added.
El Nino refers to the warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America. It is associated with the weakening of monsoon winds in India.
Earlier this month, the weather department had said that several parts of the country, barring parts of the northwest and peninsular regions, are expected to experience above-normal maximum temperatures from April to June.
India logged its hottest February in 2023 since record-keeping began in 1901, according to the IMD. However, above-normal rainfall due to seven western disturbances, including five strong ones, kept temperatures in check in March.
The forecast based on both dynamic and statistical models suggests that quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole based on data from 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
The five-category probability forecasts for the seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole suggests a higher probability for monsoon seasonal rainfall to be normal.
As per the IMD, April initial conditions have been used for generating the MME forecast for 2023 southwest monsoon rainfall. Best climate models with the highest skill over the Indian monsoon region have been used to generate MME forecasts.
The spatial distribution suggests normal to above normal rainfall likely over many areas of peninsular India and adjoining east-central India, northeast India and over some parts of Northwest India. Normal to below-normal rainfall is likely over some areas of Northwest India and parts of west-central India and some pockets of northeast India.
