New Delhi: The Pakistan army has been caught in several embarrassing situations in recent times. While Operation Sindoor exposed the fault lines within the Pakistan army, it has suffered huge casualties at the hands of terrorist groups, all of which it created.
Pakistan may have entered into a delicate truce with the Taliban, but many question how long it will last. The rate at which the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has created losses for the army has now emboldened other terror groups to take on the establishment.
Pakistan watchers and security experts say that there are many outfits which want the establishment thrown out. The TTP, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) want the rule of Islam established in Pakistan and the establishment to be overthrown.
The LeJ has focused largely on sectarian violence and has targeted the religious minority. It is not in the good books of the establishment, and in the near future, it could expand the scope of its attacks.
It has in the past carried out attacks against the Pakistan establishment, and the worry for Islamabad now is that the LeJ could go back to aligning either with the ISKP or TTP. The LeJ has, in the past, aligned with both these groups separately and hence a repeat of this cannot be ruled out. The ISKP, which was roped in Pakistan to fight against the TTP and Afghan Taliban, may not take a backseat due to the prevailing truce.
The ISKP had primarily joined hands with the Pakistan establishment to battle against the Afghan Taliban. However, if both sides have made peace, then the ISKP may back out. It is more likely that the ISKP may join hands with the LeJ rather than the TTP. The TTP is perceived to have the support of the Afghan Taliban.
Moreover, the ISKP was formed by former members of the TTP, and hence, the two coming together is difficult. Whether or not these groups come together or not, they are well aware of the weakness within the Pakistan army.
Intelligence Bureau officials say that, as per their assessment, even if these groups fight individually, they are in the days to come scale up attacks against the establishment. Pakistan is not even in a position to seek the support of the Lashkar-e-Tayiba or Jaish-e-Mohammad to battle against these groups. The Jaish-e-Mohammad has had a blow-hot, blow-cold relationship with the establishment. Further, if it is asked to fight against the TTP, the outfit may witness a split.
The Jaish-e-Mohammad is sympathetic towards both the Afghan Taliban and TTP and hence may not join the establishment. The case of the Lashkar-e-Tayiba is similar. While this outfit has never rebelled against the establishment, there was a chance of a major split when Pakistan was helping the US in the war in Afghanistan. Many cadres were unhappy with this stance and had even threatened to walk away and join the Taliban in Afghanistan.
While the threat of these groups spiralling out of control looms large, the Pakistan army has other problems, and that is in Balochistan.
The Baloch groups are driven by ethnic nationalism and secular separatism. They are seeking an independent proving. The Baloch groups in recent years have caused immense embarrassment to the Pakistan army. They have primarily targeted Chinese nationals and investments apart from the army. These groups too have realised that the army is weak and with Pakistan battling on many fronts, it would gear up for a bigger fight in Balochistan also.
(IANS)
