Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the potential formation of a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal on October 21.
IMD sources said the developing low‑pressure area will move west‑northwest, heading toward the central and adjoining west‑central Bay of Bengal. However, the IMD, as of the last reports, has not issued anything related to the formation of a deep depression or cyclone.
IMD Scientist Uma Shankar Das taking to his X handle wrote: “A cyclonic circulation is active up to an altitude of 1.5 km in the atmosphere over the South Andaman Sea and the adjacent southeast Bay of Bengal, due to which there is a possibility of the formation of a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal by October 21.”
Meanwhile, the ECMWF points to a low‑pressure system popping up on October 24, while the IMD‑GFS and NCEP runs see it forming a bit earlier—around October 22 and October 21, respectively. The IMD’s Extended‑Range Forecast (ERF) gives a low‑to‑moderate 30‑40 % chance of cyclogenesis over the west‑central Bay, and the ECMWF sub‑seasonal outlook flags a lower 20‑30 % probability for the southwest and adjoining west‑central Bay between October 20‑27.
While the models point to a moderate probability (30‑40 %) of a depression forming over the west‑central Bay, the IMD has not, as of now, issued any warning about a deep depression or cyclone.
Notably, this year 16 low‑pressure systems formed over the Bay of Bengal—more than the usual 12‑14—and they brought widespread rain across Odisha.
