Bhubaneswar: Odisha has achieved a positive average annual growth rate in goods and service tax (GST) collection without any GST compensation in the post-GST period, as per the findings of a recent paper, ‘Revenue Implications of GST on Indian State Finances,’ by Prof Sacchidananda Mukherjee of the New Delhi-based think-tank National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP).
When GST came into force in 2017, the Centre had assured states of compensation for any revenue loss incurred by them from the date of GST for a period of five years. “Analysis of GST collections of 18 major states shows that on average states collected 88.3 per cent of Revenue Under Protection (RUP) or aggregate projected revenue of states in GST in 2018-19. In 2019-20, on average SGST collection, including IGST settlement, could meet only 76 per cent of the RUP and it dropped to 61 per cent in 2020-21,” the paper says.
In 2019-20, with GST compensation, states achieved on average 93 per cent of RUP. Due to a shortfall in GST compensation and cess collection in 2020-21, states could achieve 78.7 per cent of RUP. However, the paper says that in 2020-21 states also received GST compensation in terms of back-to-back loans from the Union government in lieu of a shortfall in GST compensation cess collection and this helped states to achieve an average of 91.6 per cent of RUP in 2020-21.
All major states, except West Bengal, showed a decline in the average annual growth rate of gross state domestic product (GSDP) during the post-GST period (2017-18 to 2021-22) as compared to the pre-GST period (2012-13 to 2016-17). The fall in the growth rate in GSDP had some impact on GST collection. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the growth of the Indian economy is much stronger than that of the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008-09 and 2009-10, the paper says. It, however, observes “a falling trend in the annual economic growth rate of India since 2006-07.”
Like the world economy, the Indian economy has also faced two major shocks during 2006-07 and 2021-22 – for instance, GFC and Covid-19. Indian states also faced fiscal stresses during 2008-10, 2015-17 and 2020-21 onwards. In addition to revenue stress due to GFC, implementations of 6th Pay Commission recommendations by many states increased revenue expenditures and resulted in the rise of revenue as well as fiscal deficits during 2008-10,” the paper says. The states also faced relatively stronger fiscal stress during 2015-16 to 2016-17 due to the adoption of the Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) scheme to provide debt relief to public power distribution companies or Discoms, it adds. The economic contraction during the pandemic created pressures on public finance management in terms of lower revenue mobilisation and higher expenditure demands. An analysis of the NIPFP paper shows that state GST collection (as a percentage of RUP) was falling during 2018-21 and the dependence on GST compensation has grown up.