New Delhi: Panic has struck Pakistan as rapidly evolving developments in Iran unfold. While the protests in Iran do not seem to end, the threat of regime change made by US President Donald Trump has left the entire administration in Pakistan in a state of panic.
Several emergency meetings are being conducted that involved army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, the ISI chief, and National Security Adviser General Asim Malik, Southern Commander Lt General Rahat Naseem, among others. A possible confrontation between the US and Iran will have implications since the Pakistan-Iran border would become extremely volatile. There are chances of a spillover, and Pakistan cannot afford this at a time when tensions are already high with the Taliban over the Durand Line.
Officials say that Pakistan cannot afford any more stressed borders at this time. It lacks the manpower since most of them are too busy on the India-Pakistan border. It has been fighting against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Nationalist Army (BLA).
Further, problems are emerging in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) as well. The situation is so bad for Pakistan that due to a shortage of manpower and with problems at every possible border, it has been roping in terror groups such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Lashkar-e-Tayba to fight alongside it against the TTP and BLA.
At first, Pakistan felt that the US was just making empty threats to the regime in Iran. It has now dawned upon them that the threat is real and there is every possibility of a conflict between the US and Iran. While the volatility at the border is one part of the problem, the other is about what the US may seek from Pakistan.
Another official said that in the event of a conflict, the US is certain to ask Pakistan for military bases to launch attacks on Iran. There is also a chance that the Pakistan airspace may be sought. The official added that this puts Pakistan in a state of bother. It was quick to offer too much to the US, once Trump took charge. It boasted about its relations with the US, not anticipating that if a conflict were to erupt in Iran, then Islamabad would have a heavy price to pay.
The high-level meetings being regularly held in Pakistan have discussed all the responses it needs to be prepared for. Handing out the airspace and military bases to the US against Iran would put Pakistan in a very poor light in the region. Further, many Pakistanis are already upset about the fact that Pakistan is fighting the Taliban. Any indirect support against Iran would further anger the people, and questions about Pakistan’s involvement against Muslim nations would be raised.
An Intelligence Bureau official said that another major worry for Islamabad is the internal unrest that would take place in the case of a conflict in Iran. The people would want Pakistan to take a stance against the US, but the establishment would be unable to do so owing to a new found ties with the US.
In case of a conflict, the flow of refugees into Pakistan would go up. Pakistan would be able to handle this crisis, which would be coupled with internal unrest as well. Currently, Pakistan remains on a state of very high alert. Further diplomatic channels have been opened up with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, during which Islamabad has conveyed its concerns about a possible conflict in Iran.
Pakistan watchers say that it is a devil vs the deep sea kind of situation for Islamabad. On one hand, it cannot anger its own people, Iran or Turkey, while on the other hand, if the US seeks military airbases and airspace, it is in no position to say no.
(IANS)
