Economists Forecast South Korea’s Economy To Post Weaker-Than-Expected Growth In 2025

Seoul:  South Korean economists anticipate the country’s economy to grow at a slower pace than the government’s forecast this year, a survey showed on Sunday.

In a survey of 100 economics professors at local universities by the Global Research Group, the experts said the economy will likely expand 1.6 percent this year, according to the Korea Enterprises Federation (KEF).

The figure is lower than the growth outlook of 1.8 percent earlier forecast by the finance ministry, reports Yonhap news agency.

The survey also showed that 64 percent of the respondents expect economic growth to be stagnant for “quite a while.”

None of those surveyed expected the economy to grow at a faster pace than the government forecast, while 35 percent said the economy will likely decline for a while and then gradually recover.

Asked about the possible impact of the U.S. policy shift under the Donald Trump administration, 83 percent said Trump’s protectionist trade policies will negatively influence the South Korean economy, which has a high dependence on exports.

Over 90 percent of the economists also called for measures to reform the labor market and regulations in order to boost the global competitiveness of local businesses and foster growth, according to the KEF.

The South Korean economy posted weaker-than-expected growth last year amid slowing export growth, sagging domestic demand and a political crisis, central bank data showed Thursday.

The economic expansion in the fourth quarter also came far below the earlier forecast by the Bank of Korea (BOK) as political turmoil sparked by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s shocking martial law declaration dented private spending and investment, according to the central bank.

The country’s real gross domestic product — a key measure of economic growth — increased 2 percent in 2024, according to preliminary data from the BOK.

The 2024 figure was lower than the central bank’s forecast of a 2.2 percent expansion, though the growth accelerated from a 1.4 percent advance in 2023.

Last year’s growth was led by exports, which surged 6.9 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 3.5 percent on-year increase in 2023.