New Delhi: Since US President Donald Trump posted a message announcing his telephonic conversation with one of his “greatest friends,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, and agreeing to a trade deal, the knives are out.
The knives were out earlier, too, over the recently concluded trade deals with the United Kingdom and the European Union. The knives will be out in the future, too, when India inks a trade deal with New Zealand.
The current cry over President Trump’s, as well as US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins’ posts on social media are more about a brouhaha in anticipation, rather than real content. The details are not yet out, so the criticism over a yet largely unknown content sounds similar to creating a ruckus over an unpublished book.
As Evan A. Feigenbaum, an expert on Asian affairs, suggested, people should take a big deep breath and see what comes up next. Feigenbaum is currently Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he oversees work at its offices in Washington, New Delhi, and Singapore. He would also know how Washington sees and deals with the region, especially New Delhi, being an Asia expert with experience across governments, markets, and think tanks, and at the same time an advisor to two Secretaries of State, a former Treasury Secretary, and several CEOs.
“My advice on the U.S.-India deal … everyone seriously needs to take a deep breath and calm down,” he suggested.
In an era where trade is the war and tariffs the weapon, the United States scaling down duties from a “reciprocal” 25 per cent to an equal amount as a “punitive” measure for buying Russian oil (total 50 per cent), now to 18 per cent, is significant.
As Feigenbaum pointed out, “18 per cent is a smooth landing for India because if American tariffs are going to be a fact of life, then relative advantage over competitors is what matters. A lower tariff rate than ASEAN – most of them stuck at 19 per cent and Vietnam at 20 per cent before we even get to the transshipment issues – is competitively good for Indian exporters.”
Critics have also raised the point that the White House is dictating to India which oil markets to choose to meet its huge domestic demand. India’s pragmatic energy ties with Russia have reportedly complicated Washington’s efforts to isolate Moscow.
Referring to his conversation with Prime Minister Modi, Trump had posted, “He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.”
Incidentally, the European Union too was chided by the US President for “funding” the war in Ukraine by sourcing its energy requirements from Russia. In early December, the European Union decided to cut Russian gas imports and finally stop them by late 2027.
By that time, Moscow may call a ceasefire or reach an understanding with Ukraine or NATO. Secondly, EU members may still raise legal challenges. It’s about anticipation, again.
Counting the number of points Feigenbaum threw in his Tuesday post, he wrote, “Eighth, the devil is in the details. I have a hard time believing the government of India is going to make any Russian oil-related commitment explicit. Prove me wrong.”
Moreover, he also pointed out that US goods exports to India in 2024 were USD 41.5 billion, and services worth USD 41.8 billion, rising five-hundred-fold, which is far-stretched, though “ambition is good”, stating, “So a 500 per cent increase from $83 billion to $500 billion seems like, well, kind of a stretch,” he stated.
Secretary Brooke Rollins’ view that the “New US-India deal will export more American farm products to India’s massive market, lifting prices, and pumping cash into rural America” reflects similar statements from other nations inking trade deals.
The European Union, following the recent deal, says on its official website, “Both sides have agreed to exclude the most sensitive agricultural products from liberalisation. The Agreement balances market access with the protection of sensitive sectors.”
Moreover, in all such deals, the final impact depends on timing. Thus, till the government comes out with details – which it should, soon – any prediction may not prove accurate.
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