New Delhi: The government is set to release India’s January-March quarter GDP figures for FY26 along with the full-year growth numbers on Friday, with economists expecting the economy to expand at a slower pace than earlier estimates amid global uncertainties and external risks.
In addition, the GDP data for the full financial year will be released with the new base year of 2022-23, which is an important statistical revision in national income calculations.
Economists broadly expect India’s FY26 growth to come in at around 7.4 per cent, nearly 20 basis points lower than the estimates provided in the Second Advance Estimates (SAE).
The data release will be closely watched by policymakers, markets and economists for cues on the strength of domestic demand, investment activity and consumption trends amid rising geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices.
However, the Reserve Bank of India has projected GDP growth at 6.9 per cent for FY27.
While economists have flagged elevated crude oil prices and the possibility of adverse monsoon conditions as key downside risks to the outlook.
Moreover, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — which measures the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country — remains the broadest indicator of economic activity and serves as a critical input for fiscal policy, monetary policy and investment decisions.
Among key components, private consumption — measured through Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) — continues to remain the largest contributor to economic activity with a share of around 55-56 per cent of GDP in real terms.
According to the SAE, PFCE growth is estimated at 8.9 per cent in FY26 compared with 9.7 per cent in FY25.
Investment activity, measured through Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), is expected to remain supportive, with growth estimated at 7.1 per cent in FY26 compared with 6.4 per cent in the previous financial year.
Government spending is also expected to remain strong, with Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) likely growing 9.6 per cent in FY26, although lower than FY25 levels.
Meanwhile, Gross Value Added (GVA), which reflects sector-wise economic output, is expected to grow 7.7 per cent in FY26 compared with 7.3 per cent a year earlier.
The data will provide a clearer picture of how India’s economy navigated domestic demand conditions, investment momentum and global headwinds during FY26, while also setting the tone for growth expectations in the current financial year.
Earlier in May, the government revised the release date of the provisional estimates (PE) of annual gross domestic product (GDP) and quarterly estimates of GDP for fourth quarter (Q4) from the last working day of May to June 7 (or the previous working day if June 7 is a holiday) every year.
(IANS)
