New Delhi: Global crude oil prices are likely to ease to nearly $80 a barrel in 2027 as Middle East supplies recover and the oil market moves toward a surplus, a new report has said.
The report from Goldman Sachs said that renewed escalation in the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict could keep prices higher for longer.
Revising its near‑term view, the investment bank forecasted benchmark Brent at $90 a barrel in December 2026, up from a previous estimate of $85, before averaging $80 in 2027.
The recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports, higher production outside the Persian Gulf and dwindling demand had narrowed the global supply deficit sharply.
As exporters adapted to the conflict and increased transportation capacity, Persian Gulf oil exports recovered to around their 2025 average by late September.
However, supply risks continue to keep prices elevated as Physical Brent crude prices for near-term delivery have exceeded $130 per barrel, while benchmark Brent futures have recently traded above $100.
The investment bank found the market nearly balanced in September, with demand exceeding supply by just 0.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), compared with a deficit of 7.2 mb/d in March.
The report forecasted the global oil market to move into a surplus in Q4 2026 and remain in surplus in 2027, supporting its outlook for lower prices. Crude prices currently include a risk premium of around $25 per barrel, due to chances of supply disruptions and additional inventory drawdowns if the conflict escalates.
On the demand side, global oil consumption weakened largely in China, the Middle East and developed Asian economies.
The report forecasted demand to recover gradually as the availability and affordability of refined oil products improve.
Brent crude touched $110 a barrel this weekend for the first time since May as hopes for near‑term supply relief faded and traders increased bets on further price gains ahead of the weekend.
The benchmark had climbed 3.7 per cent in a session marked by renewed conflict in major export regions that tightened an already fragile supply outlook.
Iran‑backed Houthi rebels continuing missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia impacted the outlook, while Russia and Ukraine also attacked each other’s energy infrastructure.
—IANS—
