New Delhi: The equity headline index of India, Nifty, could reach about 39,600 in three years and 42,800 in five years under a base case scenario, a report said on Friday.
The report from OmniScience Capital predicted an annualised total return of 21–24 per cent over three years and 17.1 per cent–18.9 per cent over five years.
The estimation was done using the firm’s forward-return framework that combined expected earnings growth, potential valuation rerating and a median dividend yield of 1.30 per cent.
From a current Nifty level near 22,800, those assumptions forecast about 43,000 and 46,500 under a best‑case scenario.
“These are not predictions of where the NIFTY will trade, but mathematical outcomes based on fundamentals, reasonable earnings growth assumptions and potential valuation rerating,” said Vikas Gupta, CEO and Chief Investment Strategist, OmniScience Capital.
Gupta said that doubling of the index may sound ambitious, but over five years it translates to an annualised return of nearly 15 per cent.
The report also examined historical valuation cycles, noting eight distinct episodes over 27 years in which the Nifty’s price‑to‑book ratio breached 2.8-fold and stayed below that threshold for at least 90 days. This amounts to roughly one episode every three years over the past 27 years.
During ten such breaches, the Nifty generated an average compound annual growth rate of 28.25 per cent between the initial breach and the subsequent local price maximum.
“Across the ten instances identified, the market took an average of 360 days to reach the subsequent local price maxima from the date of breaching 2.8x P/B,” the report said.
Another report said that Nifty still requires about 15.9 per cent more returns to recover fully to its peak of 26,329 recorded on January 2, 2026. Nifty 50 had risen 1.7 per cent to 22,716 as of September 30, 2026, from its March 2026 low of 22,331.
—IANS—
