New Delhi: Among the states going to election next month, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress are in a direct contest only in Assam, where they are the principal constituents of their respective alliances.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has evolved as an influential and popular face for the BJP as convenor of the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA). His rise has been phenomenal since he left Congress. Whether one likes him or not, his lead role in Northeast politics cannot be overlooked.
Despite the threat of anti-incumbency before his third straight attempt at power, Sarma has emerged stronger. He has turned into a master strategist and a shrewd politician in the region.
Earlier this month, the Aashirvad Yatra undertaken by the Chief Minister drew massive crowds. His government’s record on infrastructure and welfare schemes has boosted his popularity.
His pitch against outsiders squatting on land, especially immigrants from Bangladesh, a highly emotive issue in the region, has found resonance with the local population.
The BJP is thus positioned favourably, with a strong grassroots organisation and the 2023 constituency delimitation working in its favour.
During the exercise, Muslim-dominated seats reduced from 35 to 24, presumably weakening the Congress and the Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in their traditional strongholds.
Meanwhile, the number of seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes and Scheduled Castes increased, aiding the BJP’s outreach.
The Opposition appears in disarray. Despite the six-party coalition, Congress faces structural weaknesses and leadership issues, resulting in desertions.
Among high-profile exits were Bhupen Bora and Pradyut Bordoloi, with the latter’s son Prateek even withdrawing his candidacy. The BJP and its allies have capitalised on this by projecting Congress as disorganised.
On the ground in Upper Assam, the BJP is dominant in Dibrugarh, with the Parliamentary constituency going to the party three times in a row since 2014. It won all Assembly segments in 2021, except one that went to the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).
In Jorhat, the Parliamentary seat went to Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi in 2024, who defeated the sitting BJP candidate by almost 1.4 lakh votes. Congress led in most Assembly segments, despite the BJP’s dominance in the 2021 polls. This time, the BJP is making an all-out effort in these segments.
In Tinsukia district, the BJP-led alliance performed well in the last Assembly election, with the party winning the seat in both 2016 and 2021. The coalition swept most seats in this part, through tea gardens and Assamese-dominated regions.
The NDA also remains strong in the hill districts, with tribal votes consolidated for Sarma in the autonomous council areas.
A close contest is expected in central Assam and the Barak Valley region, given previous results. However, a likely split in minority votes between former allies Congress and AIUDF may not augur well for the Opposition.
(IANS)
