Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday said a low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal on October 23 and intensify into a depression by the morning of October 25, with a high probability of cyclogenesis over the region.
In its extended-range outlook issued on Thursday evening, the IMD said the system is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify further over the subsequent three days.
An upper-air cyclonic circulation was lying over the southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Islands at 5.30 pm on Thursday. Under its influence, the weather system is expected to develop and strengthen as it moves towards the west-northwest.
The IMD forecast a gradual strengthening of winds over the Bay of Bengal, with squally conditions likely to begin over the eastcentral and adjoining southeast Bay from the evening of October 23.
Wind speeds are expected to reach 35-45 kmph, gusting to 55 kmph, initially. These could increase to 45-55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, by the evening of October 24, and further to 50-60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, over the eastcentral and adjoining westcentral and southeast Bay by October 25 evening.
The weather system is likely to intensify further, bringing gale-force winds of 70-80 kmph, gusting to 90 kmph, over the westcentral and adjoining eastcentral Bay from October 26. Wind speeds may increase further as the system moves west-northwestwards and strengthens through October 28.
Sea conditions are also expected to deteriorate. The eastcentral Bay is likely to experience moderate to rough seas from the evening of October 23, while rough to very rough conditions are expected over the central and adjoining southeast Bay from October 24 evening.
The sea is likely to become very rough over the central Bay from October 25 evening and high to very high over the westcentral and adjoining eastcentral Bay from the morning of October 26 through October 28.
In view of the anticipated adverse marine conditions, the IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into the eastcentral and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal from the evening of October 23 to October 25. They have also been advised to avoid the westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay from October 26 to 28.
The department has urged fisheries departments and fishing harbour authorities to alert fishing communities and closely monitor subsequent marine warnings. Fishermen have been advised to plan their activities in accordance with area-specific advisories issued between October 23 and 29.
Shipping companies, port authorities and offshore operators have been asked to review their operational preparedness and monitor updated forecasts for possible restrictions on activities vulnerable to adverse weather.
Maritime authorities have also been advised to review communication systems, vessel-tracking arrangements and search-and-rescue preparedness, particularly for vessels operating in potentially affected areas.
The IMD said decisions on restrictions on fishing, shipping, port operations and marine tourism should be guided by subsequent forecasts and warnings during October 23-29.
