Bhubaneswar: Most weather models in the country have predicted the formation of a low-pressure area over the south Bay of Bengal on Monday and it is likely to halt the withdrawal process of southwest monsoon from Odisha as well as central India.
Going by the model forecasts, courtesy a trough line extending from central Arabian Sea to south Bay of Bengal and the strong Westerlies will result in formation of a low-pressure area by October 14/15.
The GFS model of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts it may intensify into a cyclonic storm within the next 48 hours aided by higher sea surface temperature of over 29°-32°C and higher Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TPCH) and low vertical wind shear.
A look at the model forecasts shows when the system will emerge in Arabian Sea by October 19, a trough line from the centre of the system will be extending up to Gangetic West Bengal, passing over Odisha.
Under its Influence, north Odisha districts, including places like state capital Bhubaneswar and Cuttack will be recording rainfall in the range of 2 cm. Some places in north Odisha may record rainfall to the tune of 4 cm.
On the other hand, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) show the system intensifying into a depression tracking west and as it nears Tamil Nadu.
Even as there is divergence among model over intensification, all agree on cyclone genesis. While the IMD is seeing it a cyclonic storm coming, others rate the system intensifying into a depression.
Under the influence of the brewing system, Tamil Nadu will bear the brunt. Model forecasts predict over 20 cm rainfall over some coastal places in the state.
