New Delhi: The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) refuted the claim that last year’s current GDP for Q1 has been revised down from Rs 86 lakh crore to Rs 80 lakh crore, to make current year’s GDP for the first quarter to look better and if this was not done, the growth would have been 2.6 per cent in current prices.
According to an FAQ issued by the Ministry, the Q1 GDP for 2026-27 has been estimated with the new series based on 2022-23 as the base year and therefore cannot be compared with the Rs 86 lakh crore figure for the Q1 of 2025-26, which formed part of the old series that has 2011-12 as the base year. A valid comparison can be made only with the Rs 80 lakh crore figure based on the new series data with 2022-23 as the base year, it said.
The comparison of the Q1 GDP estimates needs to be understood in the context of the revisions made to the GDP series. The change in the estimate of Q1 2025-26 does not represent a downward revision made to make the current year’s growth appear higher. It reflects successive methodological and data revisions to the GDP series, the MOSPI said.
The Quarterly GDP estimates are compiled using the benchmark-indicator approach, under which the movement in the quarterly estimates is guided by the movement in relevant high-frequency indicators. A revision in the previous-year benchmark does not, by itself, create an artificial increase in the current year’s underlying economic activity or the indicators used for estimation. In the quarterly series, more than a hundred volume or value indicators are used, such as growth in crop production, growth in cement production index, growth in finished steel consumption, growth in sales in commercial vehicles, the statement said.
Giving a step-by-step explanation, the statement said:
First, the Q1 2025-26 GDP estimate was initially released on August 29, 2025 under the then prevailing 2011-12 base-year series. Under that series, GDP at current prices for Q1 2025-26 was estimated at Rs 86.05 lakh crore.
Second, in February 2026, the Ministry introduced the new GDP series with 2022-23 as the base year. As part of a base-year revision, the GDP estimates for the entire time series are comprehensively revised to incorporate updated data sources, improved methodologies, revised coverage and other relevant information. Accordingly, the estimate of Q1 2025-26 GDP at current prices under the new series was Rs 80.32 lakh crore.
Third, at the time of release of the Provisional Estimates of GDP for 2025-26 on 05.06.2026, the Q1 2025-26 estimate was further updated to Rs 80.44 lakh crore, reflecting the availability and updation of indicators and data.
Fourth, subsequently, the new series of IIP and PPI became available and were incorporated into the GDP compilation. Their incorporation necessitated updating the relevant GDP estimates from 2022-23 onwards. As a result, the Q1 2025-26 GDP at current prices was revised to Rs 80.00 lakh crore.
Thus, the movement from Rs 86.05 lakh crore to Rs 80.00 lakh crore is the result of successive revisions to the GDP series arising from the change in base year, incorporation of improved data sources and methodologies, and updation of available indicators. It is therefore incorrect to interpret the difference as a deliberate downward revision of last year’s GDP to mechanically increase the current year’s growth rate, the statement added.
(IANS)
