New Delhi: Despite geo-political uncertainties and tariffs, India is expected to clock GDP growth of 6.5 per cent this fiscal and reforms like GST 2.0 will surely have a positive impact on the long-term growth rate, Dr Arvind Virmani, Member, NITI Aayog, said on Thursday, adding that last five years have proved that the Indian economy is highly resilient to global shocks.
In an interaction with IANS here, the seasoned economist said the GST reforms are something he has personally worked on for a long time, and they will have a positive effect on the Indian economy.
“There were a number of positive measures announced in the Union Budget, and the income tax reforms were an important part, which the Parliament has passed. The GST reforms are also part of that big plan to simplify the compliance and bring ease of doing business,” he noted.
“Of course, simplification takes time for its kind of efficiency and positive tax effects and compliance effects to come in, but I am sure those results will come,” the economist said.
He stated that in anticipation of these, “markets will always say that this has already started having some effects”.
On the GDP forecast, he said that many experts, including him, “have been saying from the beginning that GDP for this year would be at around 6.5 per cent plus or minus, there is a large band of uncertainty”.
According to Virmani, the 50 per cent US tariffs came as a shock, but impactful reforms like GST are crucial on both the policy and institutional fronts. “Many such reforms have taken place and others are in process,” the economist added.
“So, on balance, I think we will still come out at 6.5 per cent growth this year. There is a huge range of uncertainty, so it can be plus or minus 0.5 per cent or even larger. The uncertainty has actually gone up,” he told IANS.
Economists have hailed the unprecedented GDP growth rate at 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of the current financial year (Q1 FY26), surpassing projections of 6.5 to 6.7 per cent by the RBI and other institutions.
(IANS)
