New Delhi: A string of exit polls on Wednesday predicted robust performance for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — with many projecting it to unseat the Mamata Banerjee-led government in West Bengal, a tough contest in Tamil Nadu and a jolt to the Left regime in Kerala.
Various polling agencies have forecast the poll outcome in four states and one Union Territory. Most pollsters predict the BJP’s resounding return to power in Assam, the unseating of the Mamata Banerjee government in West Bengal, while in southern India, Tamil Nadu is witnessing a fierce contest and Kerala is heading for a change of regime.
Assam
In Assam, Axis My India gives 88–100 seats to the BJP and 24–36 seats to the Congress, while AIUDF and others are expected to draw a blank.
Poll Diary projects 86–101 seats for the BJP and 15–26 for the Congress, while Peoples Insight projects the BJP’s numbers at 88–96 and the Congress at 30–34 seats.
Janmat Polls sees the BJP securing victory in 87–98 seats, the Congress in 29–30 seats. JVC projects the BJP’s triumph at 88–101 seats and the Congress at 23–33 seats, while Kamakhya Politics predicts a decisive lead for the BJP at 85–95 seats and the Congress at 26–39 seats.
According to Matrize exit polls, the BJP is expected to secure victory in 85–95 seats, purportedly its highest in the state, while the Congress is seen getting limited to 25–32 seats despite an aggressive campaign under the incumbent regime.
West Bengal
In West Bengal, one of the biggest states going to polls with 294 Assembly constituencies, four out of six pollsters have predicted a mandate in favour of the BJP — the key challenger to the Trinamool Congress government in the 2026 elections.
According to four pollsters, the BJP is poised to come to power in the state and form its government for the first time.
Praja Poll forecasts a whopping mandate for the BJP, with the latter projected to win 178–208 seats, while the Trinamool Congress is seen fetching 85–110 seats.
P-Marq sees the BJP winning 150–175 constituencies and the Trinamool Congress between 118 and 138 seats.
Matrize has predicted 146–161 seats for the BJP and Poll Diary 142–171. They predict 125–140 and 99–127 for the Trinamool Congress, respectively.
According to Peoples Pulse, the Trinamool Congress is likely to win 177–187 seats, while the BJP is projected at 95–110 seats.
Janmat Polls makes the biggest projections for the ruling Trinamool Congress and a setback for the BJP, with the two securing 195–205 seats and 80–90 seats, respectively.
Kerala
Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is seen to be facing the poll heat in the 2026 elections, resulting in its likely ouster from power by the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) — a talking point which has dominated the state’s political discourse for quite some time.
Most pollsters have predicted a setback for the Vijayan government and a UDF comeback in the state, the only state where the Left was in power.
According to Axis My India, the UDF is set to secure victory in 78–90 seats, the LDF in 49–62 seats, while the BJP-led NDA is expected to fetch 0–3 seats.
Peoples Pulse projects the UDF’s numbers at 75–85, the LDF at 55–65 and 0–3 seats for the BJP, while Vote Vibe sees the UDF bagging 70–80 seats, the LDF 58–68 and others (including the BJP) settling at 0–4 seats.
As per Peoples Insight, the UDF is expected to get 66–76 seats in its kitty, the LDF 58–68 and others could get 0–1. This pollster makes a fairly big prediction for the BJP, forecasting 10–14 seats in its kitty.
The votes for the 140-member Assembly will be counted on May 4, along with those for Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry.
Tamil Nadu
Most exit polls do not see any major disruption in the Tamil Nadu election results, indicating that Chief Minister M.K. Stalin’s party could return to power for a consecutive term, reversing the alternating political pattern in the state. However, one polling agency has forecast a complete turnaround in state politics.
Peoples Pulse predicts that the DMK and allies would win 125–145 seats, while the AIADMK and allies would get 65–80 seats. Praja Poll sees the DMK-led alliance bagging 148–168 seats, while the AIADMK and allies are restricted to 61–81 seats. For both, TVK is not a major factor, with projections of 18–24 and 1–9 seats respectively.
Peoples Insight gives the DMK-led alliance 120–140 seats and the AIADMK-led alliance 60–70 seats, while Kamakhya Analytics sees 78–95 for the DMK-led alliance and 68–84 seats for the AIADMK alliance.
Axis My India has forecast a major disruption in Tamil Nadu and projects the electoral battle as a contest between the DMK and TVK, with the AIADMK relegated to third position. According to it, the DMK and allies are likely to get 92–110 seats, the AIADMK 22–23 seats, and the TVK and allies could end at 98–120 seats.
One exit poll, JVC, shows the AIADMK and allies winning 128–147 seats, while the DMK trails at 75–95 seats. Matrize also predicts a fairly close contest between the DMK and AIADMK, with the former projected at 122–132 seats and the latter at 87–100.
Puducherry
All exit polls are pointing towards the return of the NDA government in Puducherry.
All of them have given the AINRC-led alliance, part of the NDA led by Chief Minister N. Rangasamy, a clear majority over the rival Congress-led alliance.
According to Praja Poll, the AINRC-led NDA is set to secure 19–25 seats, while the Congress-led alliance may get 6–10 seats. Kamakhya Analytics gives 17–24 seats to the NDA and 4–7 seats to the Congress-led alliance.
As per Axis My India, the NDA will secure 16–20 seats and the Congress-led alliance 6–8, while Peoples Pulse projects 16–19 and 10–12 seats respectively.
Puducherry, with an Assembly strength of 30 seats, voted on April 9 and recorded 89.87 per cent polling, the highest so far since 1964. The AINRC contested 16 Assembly constituencies, while the BJP fought on 10 seats, and both the AIADMK and LJP contested two seats each.
(IANS)
