Bhubaneswar: Cyclonic Storm “Arnab” (pronounced Ornab) over the Eastcentral and adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal continued its west-northwestward movement and is forecast to intensify further before crossing the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm by the forenoon of October 28.
At 0830 hrs IST on Monday, the system was centred near latitude 15.4°N and longitude 88.5°E, about 580 km southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha), 610 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 690 km east-southeast of Kakinada and 860 km east-southeast of Bapatla. It had moved west-northwestwards at 15 kmph during the preceding six hours, with maximum sustained winds of 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph.
The India Meteorological Department said the storm is very likely to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over the Westcentral Bay of Bengal by the evening of October 26 and into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm by October 27. It is then expected to move northwestwards and cross the Andhra Pradesh & Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, with maximum sustained winds of 115-125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph by the forenoon of October 28.
After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken into a Cyclonic Storm by the evening of October 28, a Deep Depression by the morning of October 29, and further into a Depression and well-marked low-pressure area over the subsequent days while moving northwards.
Warnings for Odisha
A Red message has been issued for Andhra Pradesh and adjoining South Odisha coasts.
For Odisha, rainfall and thunderstorm warnings escalate from Day 2:
- Day 2 (0830 hrs IST Oct 27 to 0830 hrs IST Oct 28): Orange warning (Be Prepared to Take Action) for heavy to very heavy rainfall and thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds of 40-50 kmph at one or two places over Puri, Gajapati, Ganjam, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri. Yellow warning (Be Aware) for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms with gusty winds of 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph over several other districts including Baleshwar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapara, Cuttack, Khordha, Nayagarh and others.
- Day 3 (0830 hrs IST Oct 28 to 0830 hrs IST Oct 29): Red warning (Take Action) for heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with extremely heavy rainfall at one or two places over Gajapati, Ganjam, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri, accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds of 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph. Orange and Yellow warnings extend to many other districts.
- Day 4 (0830 hrs IST Oct 29 to 0830 hrs IST Oct 30): Orange warning for heavy to very heavy rainfall over Sundargarh, Jharsuguda and Bargarh; Yellow warning for several other districts.
Light to moderate rain or thundershowers are likely at most places across Odisha on Days 2–4 and at many places on Day 5.
Wind, sea and fishermen advisories
Gale winds of 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph are already prevailing over the Eastcentral and adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal and are expected to increase to 115-125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph near the time of landfall. Squally weather with winds of 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely along and off the South Odisha coast from the morning of October 27, rising further thereafter.
Sea conditions will become phenomenal over the Westcentral Bay of Bengal from the afternoon of October 27 until landfall. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the Westcentral Bay of Bengal from October 26 to 29, and along and off the Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coasts from October 27 to 29, among other restricted areas.
Port signals: Distant Warning Signal No. II (DW-II) remains hoisted at Paradip and Dhamra; Local Warning Signal No. IV (LW-IV) at Puri and Gopalpur.
Strong winds may damage plantations, horticulture and standing crops, cause minor to partial damage to vulnerable and kutcha structures, uproot trees, and disrupt power and communication lines. Heavy rain is likely to cause localised flooding, waterlogging, traffic disruption and landslides in vulnerable areas. Marine and inland water transport, as well as onshore and offshore operations, may be affected.
Residents are advised to stay indoors, avoid travel if possible, take safe shelter, unplug electrical appliances, keep away from water bodies and follow official advisories. Tourism, recreational and helicopter services should be regulated.
